India – New Delhi : The southwest monsoon officially set in over Kerala on Thursday, marking the commencement of India’s crucial four-month rainy season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon’s arrival over Kerala traditionally signals the beginning of the Southwest Monsoon season, which lasts from June to September and is vital for the country’s agriculture and water resources.
In a statement, the IMD said the monsoon has advanced into the remaining parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, portions of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep Islands, Kerala and Mahe, parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the remaining areas of the Comorin region, southeast Bay of Bengal, and additional parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central, and northeast Bay of Bengal.
The weather department had earlier forecast the monsoon’s onset over Kerala on May 26. However, the arrival was delayed by more than a week.
Meanwhile, the IMD has revised its seasonal rainfall forecast, indicating that India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season. According to the department, rainfall across the country is expected to be around 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA represents the average rainfall received over a long duration, usually between 30 and 50 years. Based on data collected between 1971 and 2020, India’s seasonal rainfall LPA stands at 87 cm. Rainfall below 90 percent of the LPA is classified by the IMD as “deficient.”
Meteorologists attribute the expected shortfall partly to the emergence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño is known to weaken India’s monsoon and often results in reduced rainfall across several parts of the country.
The IMD noted that the current neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are gradually transitioning towards El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. While El Niño is expected to remain weak during June, it is likely to strengthen to moderate or even strong levels by September.
Heavy Rainfall Batters Kerala
Even as the monsoon arrived, heavy rains lashed several parts of Kerala since Wednesday night, prompting the IMD to issue weather alerts in multiple districts.
The department issued an orange alert for Alappuzha, Kottayam and Ernakulam districts for Thursday morning, warning of thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rainfall and surface wind speeds reaching up to 40 kmph.
Additionally, moderate rainfall coupled with thunderstorms and gusty winds of up to 40 kmph is likely in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki and Thrissur districts.
Earlier, the IMD had placed eight districts under an orange alert in anticipation of the monsoon’s arrival. An orange alert indicates the possibility of very heavy rainfall ranging between 11 cm and 20 cm within a 24-hour period and calls for heightened preparedness from local authorities and residents.
With the monsoon now officially underway, weather experts will closely monitor its progress across the country, especially amid concerns that strengthening El Niño conditions could impact rainfall distribution during the latter half of the season.
